Welcome Guest. Login/Signup.
ACC Sports Journal Logo

ACC Basketball Preview: March 12

Wednesday, March 12, 2014 9:56am

WEDNESDAY

NO. 12 WAKE FOREST (16-15, 6-12 ACC) VS. NO. 13 NOTRE DAME (15-16, 6-12 ACC)

Time: 1:00 p.m.

TV: ESPN2/ACC Network/TheACC.com

THE SKINNY

Yeah, Notre Dame lost the first game against Wake this season. But everyone loses at Wake. Just askwell, everyone. Certainly everyone in North Carolina, anyway. But this game isn't at Wake. Oh sure, its reasonably close to Wakes gym. But its not at Wakes gym. Listen, your guess is as good as mine as to which version of each of these teams will show up. Although if I had to guess, Id guess Bad Wake Forest.

In Notre Dames last three games, the Irish are 1-2 but took Pitt to overtime on the road and nearly knocked off UNC on the road as well, even overcoming a deficit vs. the Tar Heels, all without Garrick Sherman. Wake is 2-2 in its last four with a home loss to Boston College, home wins over Clemson and Duke and a double-digit loss to Miami. So..yeah. I dont even know.  I do know this, though - there wont be a lot of defense played in this game, probably, and so at least we all have that going for us. Which is nice.

NAMES TO KNOW

Devin Thomas. The enigmatic sophomore forward was brilliant in the first meeting with Notre Dame, making 10-of-11 shots and ending the game with a 136 ORtg. Hes had just two games with an ORtg over 100 in the 11 games since (neither of which were in Wake wins, by the way). During Wakes seven-game losing streak (which started right after the Notre Dame win), he turned the ball over 24 times. He did have 34 rebounds, though! Oh, and he had 26 fouls. Those things will all lead to bad player ratings. And stats aside, Thomas has a tendency to lose his head when things go badly. A credit to him, hes been able to keep it on straight the last few weeks, and hes going to need to again in this one. Notre Dame clearly hasnt given up on the season.

Garrick Sherman. Oh, Shermanator. Ill miss you and your beard. Your team didnt seem to miss you much in its last game at UNC, giving the Tar Heels all they could handle. But sometimes teams pick up their play a bit in the absence of one of their stars. Anyway, Sherman was almost as brilliant as Thomas in the first meeting with Wake, scoring 20 points on 8-of-15 shooting. But there are a few things the Shermanator hasnt been doing all that well lately - getting to the foul line (hes attempt just nine foul shots in his last six games) and rebounding (he has 15 total in the last five games). Notre Dame isnt going to have much of a chance if he doesnt do either of those things. And in his last two games, he shot 13-of-20 from the floor, snapping a four-game streak of 13-of-39 shooting. So thats good!

STATS ARE FOR LOSERS

Notre Dame finishes the regular season at 347th in free-throw defense, as its opponents shoot 75.1% from the free-throw line. For some perspective there, no ACC team shoots that high. (Boston College is the highest at 74.3%.) And just six ACC teams even shoot above 70% from the line. Yet thats the average against Notre Dame. Luck of the Irish? Not so much. Wake finished the ACC slate dead last in both offensive rebounding percentage in league play (26.3%) and in offensive rebounding percentage allowed (39.9%). Good news for Wake? In the first meeting, Notre Dame rebounded just 23.7% of its misses. But Wake rebounded just 11.1% of its own misses on three total offensive boards. It was Wakes second-lowest OR% this year and also the second-lowest since November 2011 (9.3% in a win over Nebraska - which was also a road win for Bzdelik!)

NARRATIVES

Notre Dame Win: 

Notre Dame Loss: YOU HAD ONE JOB, MIKE BREY! Well, two jobs. And one is to bring back your mock turtleneck. You laugh, but Im not the only one who feels this way. Youll have to work on that for next season. #BringBackTheMock

Wake Forest Win: ……LOLWUT?

Wake Forest Loss: WAKE FANS! YOURE (ALMOST CERTAINLY) FREE!

PREDICTION

Notre Dame, 67-62. Yeah, picking Wake to win an ACC Tournament game? Sorry, cant do it.

NO. 10 MIAMI (16-15, 7-11 ACC) VS. NO. 15 VIRGINIA TECH (9-21, 2-16 ACC)

Time: 3:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN2/ACC Network/TheACC.com

THE SKINNY

CAN COACH TILDE FINALLY KNOCK OFF HIS NEMESIS, THE ALMIGHTY HOKIE? CAN VIRGINIA TECH MAKE IT FOUR WINS AGAINST BCS-CONFERENCE TEAMS, THREE OF WHICH WILL HAVE COME AGAINST MIAMI? No seriously, I cant process this. How can youbut I mean.no but.ugh. Listen, the Hokies are a scrappy bunch, in spite of everything. But even by February 15 - which was Miamis road loss to the Hokies - they were so depleted it just seemed like there was no way. Until there was. And guess what? In the first 30 minutes of that game, Miami had 22 points. STOP. Anyway, I know one thing - Coach Tildes going to have to find a way to penetrate the almighty Hokie defense, and certainly a way to shoot better than 36% from TWO-point range (22.4% from three - on FORTY-NINE ATTEMPTS!). Stop shooting threes. Get into the paint. And defend the three, as Virginia Tech hit 18-of-39 of their attempts against the Hurricanes in two meetings. Seriously, Coach Tilde, please prove to us that logic still exists in this universe.

NAMES TO KNOW

Devin Wilson. He only averaged 6.5 points in two wins against Miami, but the freshman point guard also had 14 assists to just three turnovers against the Hurricanes. His numbers against most other teams were.worse. He shot just 2-of-11 against Miami but made more free throws in two games on his own (nine) than Miami did in either game (eight in each). So, theres that. He gets to the foul line a lot. This is hardly breaking news. But clearly, hes doing something right to get that many assists against a pretty good Miami defense. Wilson made the All-Freshman team this year sort of by default, but Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski taking time after their blowout win over the Hokies to praise Wilson definitely made me think twice about him. He might end up being prett-ay, prett-ay good, that one.

Rion Brown. One of the biggest surprises to me in All-ACC voting was that Rion Brown didnt finish second behind Marcus Paige in the most-improved balloting. (It was T.J. Warren instead.) His percentage of possessions used when on the court jumped from 16.5% last year to 24.6% this year, and his minutes from 55.4% to 86.4 percent. His eFG% went from 45.6% to 51.5%, and his assist rate went up exponentially (from 7.2 to 16.9) while his turnover rate stayed about the same. He has been in the nations top 155 for the last three years in lowest turnover rate. Anyway, he hasnt been great against the Hokies, averaging 10.5 points on 8-of-31 shooting (4-of-16 from three, 4-of-15 from two) and 1-of-2 from the line. Yeah, so theyre going to need more from Rye-On.

STATS ARE FOR LOSERS

There are only 17 teams that take longer on average on each offensive possession than Virginia Tech (20.1 seconds). And one of them is Miami, which is 350th out of 351 teams in average possession length on offense (21.8 seconds). The longest is 22.1 seconds by Delaware State.

Somehow, this is Coach Tildes best team at defending the two-pointer (allowing 43.5%) since his 2006 George Mason team that went to the Final Four (42.7%). There is no offensive category that Ken Pomeroy tracks that the Hokies will finish higher than 11th in for ACC play only. And theyll finish 13th or worse in three-point percentage (13th), two-point percentage (15th), free-throw percentage (15th - in this league!) and turnover percentage (14th). Welp.

NARRATIVES

Virginia Tech Win: Well, thisll be fun for a minute!

Virginia Tech Loss: Virginia Techs offense:

Miami Win: SWAG!

Miami Loss: 

PREDICTION

Miami, 66-53. REVENGE! ITS SO SWEET!

NO. 11 GEORGIA TECH (15-16, 6-12 ACC) VS. NO. 14 BOSTON COLLEGE (8-23, 4-14 ACC)

Time: 7:00 p.m.

TV: ESPN2/ACC Network/TheACC.com

THE SKINNY

As soon as I went through the schedule and saw that this game was happening again - which was, lets face it, Tuesday night - I had an immediate flashback to last years Georgia Tech-Boston College ACC Tournament tilt. It would end up being Boston Colleges fourth straight win, and that 20-point beatdown seemed epic at the time, but it was all downhill from there for Boston College. Because they havent beaten anyone by that many points since. And theyve only beaten eight Division-I teams since. BUT THEY DIDNT EVEN BEAT DIVISION-II PHILADELPHIA BY 20 POINTS! Gross. Anyway, it was that 2013 streak - plus Boston College returning most of its players - that led many of us idiots in the media to think the Eagles might not be awful this year. WELL SHAME ON US. AND IM NOT FALLING FOR IT AGAIN! And you know why? Because defense, thats why. You let Georgia Tech shoot 41-of-73 from two-point range against you in two meetings this year, I cant, Boston College. But I cant with Georgia Tech, either. Ugh, this game is gross.

NAMES TO KNOW

Olivier Hanlan. God bless whomever put Hanlan on their First Team All-ACC ballot. Some might say, But Erick Green!I would say to that person that they clearly didnt watch enough Virginia Tech games last year. Or Boston College games this year. And now Im sad remembering. Hanlan is a very good player, and hes really coming on of late, but his turnover rate is still a bit high and his rebounding percentages as a 6-4 guard are basically LOL. Yes, thats a number. Still, Hanlans a fantastic player whos averaging 24.5 points in the last two games on 18-of-33 shooting (5-of-111 from three), adding 8-of-10 free throws. For awhile, he went toe-to-toe scoring-wise with ACC POY T.J. Warren in BCs last game. For awhile. But maybe hell have another awesome game that will make us all vote Boston College in next years preseason top hahahahahaha I cant.

Trae Golden. Hes really finding his form since returning from injury, averaging 15 points on 7-of-18 shooting (5-of-13 from three), adding 11-of-12 free throws. Oh, not to mention 11 assists to zero turnovers in the last two games. And the latter is probably the most important stat. Also, hes passing the ball to Daniel Miller some. Which is good because the Georgia Tech guards need to know that hes good. Anyway, Golden missed the second meeting with Boston College this year but in the first, he had 2 points on 6-of-14 shooting (8-of-8 from the line). But the 4-of-8 from three was helpful. Itd be helpful if he could do likewise in this game, not to mention drawing fouls. Whos going to guard him? I ask because I dont know.

STATS ARE FOR LOSERS

Boston College hasnt won a game this year with fewer than 60 total possessions. Yet the Eagles are 332nd in average possession length on offense (20 seconds). Okay then. Each of the meetings between Boston College and Georgia Tech earlier this season were exactly 58 possessions. Georgia Tech finally got its first two-game winning streak in ACC play under Brian Gregory with a win over Syracuse followed by one over Virginia Tech - CAN THEY MAKE IT THREE IN A ROW OVER ACC OPPONENTS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 2010 ACC TOURNAMENT?!?!?!

NARRATIVES

Boston College Win: EAGLE ATTACK!

Boston College Loss: Boston Colleges season, from beginning to end:

Georgia Tech Win: Hey maybe were building something here guys!

 Georgia Tech Loss: Georgia Techs offense:

 

PREDICTION

Georgia Tech, 74-70. I have no idea. Just my gut.

Overall: 108-38 (99-34 ACC)

Last Week: 8-6 (8-6 ACC)