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ACC Basketball Preview: Jan 13

Monday, January 13, 2014 11:00am

Lauren Brownlow breaks down the ACC's Monday night action.

VIRGINIA (12-4, 3-0 ACC) AT DUKE (12-4, 1-2 ACC)

Time: 7:00 p.m.

TV: ESPN/WatchESPN

THE SKINNY

Dukes offense versus Virginias defense will be the key matchup here - Duke is No. 2 in the country in offensive efficiency, while Virginia is No. 2 in defensive efficiency. Duke is making nearly 41% of its three-pointers this year, 13th in the country. Virginias three-point defense is okay, but not what it usually is. But the Cavaliers are allowing just 39.5% inside the arc, while Duke is shooting 53.2% from two-point range. Clemsons defense was able to keep Duke in check from both two-point range (35.3%) and three-point range (32.0%). Easier said than done, of course, but Virginia needs to do that, too. Also, Virginia will absolutely kill you if you take a lot of bad shots and turn the ball over. Thats where the Cavaliers had a lot of their success against N.C. State. A lot of those miscues were due to Virginias defense, but not all of them. Duke is not going to make those same kinds of mistakes - at least, not nearly as often. Virginia has to capitalize when it gets the chance, though, and Duke has to avoid those bad shots and ill-advised turnovers.

NAMES TO KNOW

Andre Dawkins. Hes in a bit of a shooting slump - by his standards, anyway - hitting 2-of-13 three-pointers in the last three games. Against Clemson, he had his lowest offensive efficiency rating (ORtg) of the season since the ECU game, making 1-of-7 shots and adding one assist to two turnovers. Dawkins is shooting 44.4% from three this season in spite of said slump, and his assist rate is higher than its ever been in his career (and his turnover rate is the lowest its been, too). His defense is much improved. But hes the type of player who, if he can get into a game - especially at home - and start knocking down three-pointers, it feels like a Duke win is inevitable. 

Mike Tobey. N.C. State has been pretty good at playing interior defense this year, but the Wolfpack had nothing for Mike Tobey on Saturday. That was a sentence that I just typed. Anyway, Tobey had 19 points in Virginias last five games combined entering Saturday, and he finished that game with 16 points on 6-of-11 shooting (4-of-4 from the foul line). The 6-11 sophomore spent much of the game camped out in the paint and going to work, and there seemingly wasnt much the Wolfpack could do to stop him. Playing post defense has been a bit of an issue for the Blue Devils to date, and if Tobey can have a big game, Virginia has a much better chance.

STATS ARE FOR LOSERS

If Virginia had gone the entire second half at N.C. State on Saturday without scoring a point, it would have won the game anyway, based on the number of points N.C. State could muster in the second half. Yep. Dukes offensive efficiency rating of 93.4 against Clemson was its worst of the season; Duke is now 1-2 this season when posting a rating of under 100, and Duke has posted just seven offensive efficiency ratings worse than that one in the last four seasons, dating back to 2010. Naturally, the 2010 team won both games it had a worse offensive efficiency than 93.4, and the 2011 team won one. Virginias offensive efficiency against N.C. State was just its fourth-best effort of the season, but it was the best against N.C. States defense all year. Meanwhile, the Cavalier defense held N.C. States offense to a 69.0 rating, which was the Wolfpacks worst this year by a significant margin. The previous worst had been 93.6. And you have to go back to 2006 to find a rating thats worse for the Wolfpack, by the way (a 61.5 against Iowa in November 2005).

NARRATIVES

Virginia Win: So.Virginia might actually be who we thought they were? I meanbefore the season, and then they started playing well, and then they played badly again, and now theyre playing well again? I meanwhat?

 

Virginia Loss: Its not your fault, Virginia. You caught Duke after a loss. Better luck next time.

Duke Win: Yeah, so we lost at Clemson and Notre Dame. We still win at home. Were still Duke. But really, were not that good!

Duke Loss: 

PREDICTION

Duke, 72-65. I justI dont know why. Well, I kind of do. Duke teams dont usually play badly after a loss, particularly if that game after a loss is AT HOME. Really the only reason. Its a tough place to play, that Cameron Indoor. Or so I hear.

NO. 2 SYRACUSE (16-0, 3-0 ACC) AT BOSTON COLLEGE (5-11, 1-2 ACC)

Time: 9:00 p.m.

TV: ESPNU/WatchESPN

THE SKINNY

Well, Boston College looks at least semi-interested in playing some defense lately, so theres that. About 13 games too late, but whatever. Unfortunately, though, the Eagles will be facing the No. 6 most efficient offense in the country, per Ken Pom. The highest-ranked offense B.C. has faced to this point is No. 10 Toledo, which posted a 135.2 against them - BCs worst allowed this year. The Eagles also get over 26% of their points from the free-throw line, but Syracuse doesnt let opponents get to the line much. Syracuses opponents have a 33.4 free-throw rate, while BCs is 47.2. And Syracuses opponents only get 19% of their points from the charity stripe. So, that could be an issue. BC basically has to hope it gets hot from three-point range, because Syracuses opponents score 36.3% of their points from beyond the arc. And the Eagles will have to keep Syracuse off the offensive boards - the Orange retrieve over 40% of their missed shots, and in a game thats no doubt going to be at a slower pace, they cant afford to give up second and third looks like North Carolina did to Syracuse on Saturday.

NAMES TO KNOW

Lonnie Jackson. Oh, hey Lonnie Jackson! Nice to see you again! Hes practically an elder statesman on the Boston College roster as a junior, but hes been.well.M.I.A. is probably a fair way to describe it, at least most of this season. He missed the first three games with a hamstring problem, and he had hit double figures exactly once entering Virginia Tech. He barely even cracked 20 minutes of playing time, though (just twice in his first 10 games). He wasnt hitting his threes, either - he was 12-of-41 entering the January start of ACC play. In two league games, hes averaged 30 minutes and 12.0 points on 8-of-15 shooting (7-of-12 from three), and a season-high 17 against the Hokies on 5-of-8 from three. As UNC found out, you have to make shots to beat Syracuse. Jackson, at times, can do that.

Jerami Grant. After the sophomore big man had just one double-digit rebounding game in his first 13 games, he now has back-to-back such games, with 10 boards against Virginia Tech and 12 against North Carolina. Hes always been able to score, hitting double figures in all but three games this year, and its not like hes been a bad rebounder - he ranks in the top 400 or so nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding. And he played 30 or more minutes in just two of Syracuses first 10 games, and hes passed that mark four times in the last five, including a season-high 40 against UNC. Always nice to have another dependable option if youre Syracuse. Maybe the Orange could let another ACC team borrow a few of theirs.

STATS ARE FOR LOSERS

Boston College held Virginia Tech to 37.1% shooting from two-point range, which was the lowest percentage by a BC opponent this year from inside the arc. And after holding just 11 of their first 14 opponents to under 47% from two-point range, BCs last two opponents have shot 42.1% and 37.1%, respectively. Syracuse had its worst offensive efficiency rating of the season against UNC (95.5) and still won by double digits, mostly because it held UNC to a 75.4, Syracuses second-best defensive performance this year. Syracuses Trevor Cooneys mini-slump continues - hes 7-of-32 from three in the last three games (he began the year 43-of-86). BC managed to win at Virginia Tech in spite of Olivier Hanlan and Ryan Anderson having the two worst ORtgs of anyone else on the team. Theyll certainly take that.

NARRATIVES

Syracuse Win: I meanyeah.

Syracuse Loss:

 

Boston College Win: Oh, you thought you knew what to expect, ACC? LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL WERE GOING TO RUIN EVERYTHING JUST BECAUSE

Boston College Loss: Welp, this BC season has officially reached DEFCON-Sad. (Well, it kind of already has, but whatever. Just wanted to use this GIF.)

 

PREDICTION

Syracuse, 79-61. Really nothing to add, probably.

Last week: 8-6 (8-6 ACC)

Overall: 20-13 (12-9 ACC)

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